Our model gives Berazategui a 58% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Fénix.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Berazategui have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Fénix have done so in 1 of their last 2.