Our model gives Berazategui a 46% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Estrella del Sur.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Berazategui have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Estrella del Sur have done so in 0 of their last 4.