Our model gives Benfica a 60% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Hearts.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Benfica have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Hearts have done so in 3 of their last 5.