Our model gives Benfica a 73% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Academico Viseu.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Benfica have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Academico Viseu have done so in 1 of their last 2.