Our model gives Belgrano a 47% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Defensa y Justicia.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Belgrano have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Defensa y Justicia have done so in 3 of their last 3.