Our model gives Beijing Guoan a 58% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Zhejiang.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 61% likelihood against 39% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Beijing Guoan have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Zhejiang have done so in 2 of their last 2.