Our model gives Beijing Guoan a 74% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 10% for Lanzhou Longyuan.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Beijing Guoan have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Lanzhou Longyuan have done so in 3 of their last 6.