Our model gives Bayer 04 Leverkusen a 55% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Celje.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Celje have done so in 3 of their last 6.