Our model gives Basel a 46% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Thun.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Basel have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Thun have done so in 6 of their last 6.