Our model gives Basel a 43% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Lausanne Sport.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Basel have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Lausanne Sport have done so in 0 of their last 1.