Our model gives Barranquilla a 39% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Deportes Quindío.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Barranquilla have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Deportes Quindío have done so in 1 of their last 3.