Our model gives Barra FC a 45% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Itabaiana.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Barra FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Itabaiana have done so in 0 of their last 2.