Our model gives Barnsley a 26% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 49% for Crewe Alexandra.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Barnsley have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Crewe Alexandra have done so in 1 of their last 2.