Our model gives Barcelona W a 82% chance to win this one, against 10% for a draw and 8% for Deportivo Ibarra W.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 76% likelihood against 24% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Barcelona W have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Deportivo Ibarra W have done so in 2 of their last 2.