Our model gives Balzan a 55% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Gzira United.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Balzan have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1.