Our model gives Baltika Kaliningrad a 42% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Rubin Kazan.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Baltika Kaliningrad have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Rubin Kazan have done so in 3 of their last 5.