Our model gives Azam a 35% chance to win this one, against 33% for a draw and 32% for Simba.

Both teams are projected to score in 40% of simulations, against 60% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 32% likelihood against 68% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Azam have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1.