Our model gives Ayr United a 72% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Greenock Morton.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ayr United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Greenock Morton have done so in 0 of their last 3.