Our model gives Avispa Fukuoka a 62% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Verspah Oita.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2.