Our model gives Aveley a 63% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 17% for Lewes.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aveley have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Lewes have done so in 1 of their last 3.