Our model gives Audace Cerignola a 49% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Casertana.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Audace Cerignola have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Casertana have done so in 1 of their last 1.