Our model gives Aucas a 51% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Macará.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aucas have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Macará have done so in 4 of their last 4.