Our model gives Atlas a 40% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Atlante.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlas have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Atlante have done so in 1 of their last 2.