Our model gives Atlanta United II a 53% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 27% for New York RB II.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlanta United II have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and New York RB II have done so in 3 of their last 3.