Our model gives Atlético a 26% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 47% for Real Cartagena.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Real Cartagena have done so in 1 of their last 4.