Our model gives Atlético Rafaela a 34% chance to win this one, against 37% for a draw and 29% for Tristán Suárez.

Both teams are projected to score in 33% of simulations, against 67% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 22% likelihood against 78% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Rafaela have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Tristán Suárez have done so in 1 of their last 3.