Our model gives Atlético Rafaela a 40% chance to win this one, against 34% for a draw and 27% for San Martín de Tucumán.

Both teams are projected to score in 35% of simulations, against 65% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 26% likelihood against 74% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Rafaela have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and San Martín de Tucumán have done so in 2 of their last 3.