Our model gives Atlético Progreso a 29% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 42% for Danubio.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 39% likelihood against 61% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Progreso have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Danubio have done so in 1 of their last 3.