Our model gives Atlético Ottawa a 46% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Vancouver FC.

Both teams are projected to score in 61% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 58% likelihood against 42% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Ottawa have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Vancouver FC have done so in 1 of their last 4.