Our model gives Atlético Oriente a 47% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 29% for Deportes Rancagua.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 39% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Oriente have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Deportes Rancagua have done so in 2 of their last 3.