Our model gives Atlético Nacional a 63% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 12% for Santa Fe.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Santa Fe have done so in 3 of their last 5.