Our model gives Atlético Nacional a 55% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Cali.

Both teams are projected to score in 48% of simulations, against 52% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Deportivo Cali have done so in 0 of their last 3.