Our model gives Atlético Mineiro a 57% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Grêmio.

Both teams are projected to score in 43% of simulations, against 57% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Mineiro have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Grêmio have done so in 1 of their last 5.