Our model gives Atlético Mineiro a 66% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Chapecoense.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Mineiro have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5, and Chapecoense have done so in 2 of their last 4.