Our model gives Atlético Malveira a 23% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 51% for Mafra.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Mafra have done so in 1 of their last 2.