Our model gives Atlético Grau a 54% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Sport Boys.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 46% likelihood against 54% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético Grau have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Sport Boys have done so in 0 of their last 1.