Our model gives Atlético a 40% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Bogotá.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 42% likelihood against 58% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Atlético have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Bogotá have done so in 1 of their last 4.