Our model gives Athlone Town a 48% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Kerry.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Athlone Town have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Kerry have done so in 3 of their last 3.