Our model gives Athletic Club a 43% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Londrina.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 45% likelihood against 55% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Athletic Club have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Londrina have done so in 2 of their last 3.