Our model gives Astana a 69% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 12% for Kaspiy.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Astana have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Kaspiy have done so in 2 of their last 3.