Our model gives Astana a 56% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Kairat.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Astana have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Kairat have done so in 2 of their last 5.