Our model gives Asia Talas a 45% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 34% for Neftchi Kochkor-Ata.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Asia Talas have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Neftchi Kochkor-Ata have done so in 2 of their last 3.