Our model gives Ashton United a 32% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 42% for Gainsborough Trinity.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ashton United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Gainsborough Trinity have done so in 2 of their last 3.