Our model gives Ascot United a 47% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 34% for Pagham.

Both teams are projected to score in 66% of simulations, against 34% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 72% likelihood against 28% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ascot United have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Pagham have done so in 1 of their last 1.