Our model gives Arsenal Tula a 20% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 53% for Ural.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 43% likelihood against 57% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Arsenal Tula have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Ural have done so in 2 of their last 4.