Our model gives Arouca a 41% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Marítimo.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Arouca have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Marítimo have done so in 0 of their last 1.