Our model gives Ariana a 68% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 16% for Utsikten.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 70% likelihood against 30% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ariana have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Utsikten have done so in 1 of their last 2.