Our model gives Aresimi a 58% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Skopje.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Aresimi have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Skopje have done so in 2 of their last 3.