Our model gives Arendal a 59% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Pors Grenland.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 60% likelihood against 40% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Arendal have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Pors Grenland have done so in 1 of their last 3.