Our model gives Araz a 22% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 53% for Sabah.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 54% likelihood against 46% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Araz have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Sabah have done so in 2 of their last 3.